The Reserve Bank's lever
OCR and your mortgage: what it means
The Official Cash Rate is the knob the RBNZ turns to steer inflation — and the dial that most directly shifts your mortgage rate. Understand it, then make your call on where it goes next.
Reserve Bank holds OCR at 2.75% in split decision
The RBNZ surprised markets by holding the OCR in a 4-3 vote, while leaving the door open to future rises. Inflation is expected to reach 4.4% in the December quarter, largely due to fuel prices, and most bank economists now expect a hike in December.
What this means for you
Mortgage rates are unlikely to jump straight away, but a rise later this year is still possible. If you are fixing soon, it may be worth testing your budget at a slightly higher rate.
General information only, not financial advice.
A plain-English guide
What is the OCR, and why does it matter?
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is the interest rate New Zealand's central bank — the RBNZ — charges commercial banks for overnight lending. It's the single biggest lever the Reserve Bank pulls to steer the economy: up to cool inflation, down to spark borrowing and spending.
For first-home buyers it matters more than almost anyone. The OCR feeds straight through to floating mortgage and term-deposit rates — so a move up tends to lift the rates on new home loans and push up the test rate banks use to assess you, while a move downeases them. When the OCR shifts, the numbers in your calculator shift with it.
The last decision
At its October 2026 review, the RBNZ kept the OCR on hold at 2.75%, up from 2.50%. The next decision is announced on 9 December 2026.
Cast your call
Where will the OCR go next?
Current OCR
2.75%
Set October 2026 · next decision 9 December 2026
Vote your guess for the 9 December 2026 announcement. No sign-in needed.